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iron ore

China's May iron ore imports fall 7 pct from April
    * Iron ore supply still outpacing demand - trader

    By Manolo Serapio Jr
    SINGAPORE, June 9 (Reuters) - Iron ore futures in China
steadied on Monday as the market stabilised after recent steep
falls in prices spurred buying interest in the world's top
consumer of the steelmaking commodity.
    Spot iron ore prices rose last week after a seven-week slide
that pulled down the raw material to its weakest since September
2012. A glut in supply could limit any further price recovery at
a modest level, traders said.
    Iron ore contract for delivery in September on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange was unchanged at 688 yuan ($110) a
tonne by midday. The contract rose about 0.5 percent last week
after falling in the prior five weeks.      
    "Supply is still more than demand, but we have probably seen
the peak in supply for now and that's helping stabilise the
market a bit," said a Shanghai-based iron ore trader.
    Despite a 13 percent drop in iron ore prices in May, China's
imports of the raw material fell to 77.4 million tonnes in May
from 83.4 million tonnes in April which was the second highest
monthly volume. 
    Imports may continue to decline on a month on month basis
due to high inventory of iron ore at Chinese ports and among
mills, a crackdown on iron ore financing in China and as mills
run down stockpiles ahead of the slow summer season, said Helen
Lau, a senior mining analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Securities in Hong
Kong.
    "This will put more downward pressure on the over supplied
seaborne market. We stay bearish on iron ore and steel prices,"
Lau said in a note on Monday.
    Stocks of imported iron ore at 44 Chinese ports stood at
113.2 million tonnes as of June 6 SH-TOT-IRONINV, down
slightly from a record high of 113.6 million tonnes in the
previous week, according to industry consultancy Steelhome. 
    Chinese steel mills are cutting back on long-term iron ore
contracts in favour of cheaper spot cargoes on expectations that
spot prices are unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon.
 
    Benchmark ore with 62 percent iron content for immediate
delivery to China .IO62-CNI=SI rose 0.2 percent to $94.50 a
tonne on Friday, according to data compiler Steel Index.
    Iron ore ended the week nearly 3 percent higher in its first
weekly gain in eight weeks, but has stayed below $100 a tonne
since May 19. It touched a 20-month low of $91.80 on May 30.
    

iron ore

While the last decline below $100 in 2012 spurred buyers to rebuild inventories, boosting prices to about $159 in four months, this time around expectations of ample supply will encourage users to keep reserves at a minimum, said Goldman.

“We believe the current downturn could trigger another destocking cycle of similar scale,” Lelong, Daniel Quigley and Amber Cai wrote. “But the eventual rebound will be far less robust than previously.”

Reduced Chinese imports will also offset any impact of expected supply disruptions in India and a possible strike at Australia’s Port Hedland, the world’s largest bulk-export terminal, the bank said. Maritime Union of Australia, which represents tugboat deckhands at the port, approved unlimited work stoppages of 24 hours, 48 hours and 7 days on May 12.

BHP, the third-largest exporter, won’t be able to make up shipments lost during a strike, the company’s iron ore president Jimmy Wilson said in a statement today. The union said May 12 it hadn’t decided whether to take action.

iron ore

The global seaborne iron ore glut will probably be 21 percent bigger than forecast next year as steel production slows in China, the world’s largest consumer, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The surplus will reach 175 million metric tons in 2015, compared with a prior prediction of 145 million tons, Goldman Sachs said in a report dated yesterday. The bank estimates that output will exceed demand by 72 million tons and prices will average $109 a ton in 2014, before dropping to $80 next year.

Iron ore has slumped 27 percent this year as economic growth in China slowed and mining companies from BHP Billiton Ltd. to Rio Tinto Group in Australia boosted output, shifting the global seaborne market into a glut. Banks from Standard Chartered Plc to Credit Suisse Group AG say more Chinese steel mills will go bankrupt and hurt consumption.

“The market is no longer in balance but in the early stage of a structural surplus,” analysts including Christian Lelong wrote in the report. “China will not act as the safety valve in an oversupplied market for much longer.”

Ore with 62 percent iron content delivered to the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1 percent to $97.50 a dry ton yesterday, the lowest level since September 2012, according to data from The Steel Index Ltd. The decline in iron ore, Australia’s biggest export earner, pulled the country’s dollar today to the weakest level since May 2.